Risk prediction scores and tools

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QCovid is a risk prediction algorithm based on primary care data from over 6 million patients in the UK. It estimates risk of infection leading to hospital admission or mortality from COVID-19 in adults aged 19 and over.25 When recalibrated to reflect underlying infection rates at different times in the pandemic the algorithm performed well with good alignment between observed and predicted risk in retrospective cohort studies in England and Scotland.26,27 The algorithm has been used to inform shielding advice and to identify priority groups for vaccination.

Remote COVID-19 Assessment in Primary Care (RECAP) is an early warning score for the remote assessment of suspected COVID-19 in primary care, although it is currently unvalidated.7 Published in November 2020 and based on wide-ranging consultations with UK clinicians and a rapid review of published and preprint literature,28 the score includes 12 items (pulse rate, temperature, fever, respiratory rate, shortness of breath, pulse oximeter reading, tiredness, muscle aches, new confusion, duration of symptoms, shielded list and other risk factors for poor outcome (age, obesity, ethnicity)). Each clinical item includes suggested cut-off values and assessment methods which could be used over telephone or video link and where the patient/carer has no access to instruments.7